The orange-bellied parrot is one of Australia’s most imperilled species. We investigated whether conservation actions at the breeding grounds are effective at reducing mortality over migration and winter. We used a population model to estimate annual survival of the parrots to see whether survival was constant or varied between juveniles and adults, year and time period. Data for 797 parrots hatched between 1995 and 2017 showed that 65% died in the first year of life, and 35% died in the second year of life or later. Therefore, survival is age-related, with juvenile survival more than halving over the study period. Interventions in the breeding grounds are likely not sufficient to recover the species, and so targeted efforts to protect orange-bellied parrots in their migration and winter habitats may be needed.