{"text_format":"1","workbook":"xlsx","n_sheets":25,"sheets":["preliminaries","candidate actions","costs","participants","judgments","data entry","value judgment","ex-situ judgments","Q1","Q2","Q3","Q4","Q5","Q6","Q7","Q8","Q9","Q10","Q11","Q12","Q13","Q14","outcomes_1","outcomes_2","calc"],"not_rendered":{"charts":18,"images":0,"macros":1,"external_links":0,"defined_names":30,"comments":0,"pivot_tables":0},"unopened":[],"bounds":{"document_bytes":16777216,"sheet_cells":100000,"rows_first":2000,"rows_last":500,"rows_between":2000,"halvings":0,"cell_chars":16384,"cell_head_chars":4096},"cells_cut":0,"cells_raw":0,"read":"whole","date_system":"1900"}

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[]
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[]
[]
[]
[null,"Time horizon (years)"]
[]
[null,"Briefly describe the base case for CIFF management."]
[]
[]
[null,{"$f":"CONCATENATE(\"Briefly describe a scenario for factors beyond CIFF management that may affect your judgments of population change over the next \",C14,\" years.\")","v":"Briefly describe a scenario for factors beyond CIFF management that may affect your judgments of population change over the next  years."}]

{"sheet":"candidate actions","index":1,"n_rows":22,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":22,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
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[null,null,"Action","Description (optional)"]
[null,1,"Ex-situ"]
[null,2]
[null,3]
[null,4]
[null,5]
[null,6]
[null,7]
[null,8]
[null,9]
[null,10]
[null,11]
[null,12]

{"sheet":"costs","index":2,"n_rows":32,"n_cols":11,"rows_kept":32,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
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[]
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[null,"Personnel costs"]
[]
[null,"Median annual salary, including on-costs ($k)"]
[null,"Estmated cost per person-day ($k)",{"$f":"C13/230","v":0}]
[]
[null,"Discount rate (optional)",0]
[]
[null,null,null,null,"UP-FRONT COSTS",null,null,null,"ANNUAL MAINTENANCE COSTS"]
[null,null,null,null,"Personnel time p.a.","Equipment p.a.",null,null,"Personnel time p.a.","Maintenance materials p.a.","TOTAL COST"]
[null,"ACTION","Start year","End year","(person days)","($k)","Start year","End year","(person days)","($k)","($k)"]
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[null,{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C12=\"\",\"\",'candidate actions'!C12)","v":""},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"IF(B22=\"\",\"\",(PV($C$16,D22,-(E22*$C$14+F22),0)-PV($C$16,(C22-1),-(E22*$C$14+F22),0))+(PV($C$16,H22,-(I22*$C$14+J22),0)-PV($C$16,(G22-1),-(I22*$C$14+J22),0)))","v":""}]
[null,{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C13=\"\",\"\",'candidate actions'!C13)","v":""},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,""]
[null,{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C14=\"\",\"\",'candidate actions'!C14)","v":""},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,""]
[null,{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C15=\"\",\"\",'candidate actions'!C15)","v":""},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,""]
[null,{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C16=\"\",\"\",'candidate actions'!C16)","v":""},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,""]
[null,{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C17=\"\",\"\",'candidate actions'!C17)","v":""},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,""]
[null,{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C18=\"\",\"\",'candidate actions'!C18)","v":""},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,""]
[null,{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C19=\"\",\"\",'candidate actions'!C19)","v":""},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"IF(B29=\"\",\"\",(PV($C$16,D29,-(E29*$C$14+F29),0)-PV($C$16,(C29-1),-(E29*$C$14+F29),0))+(PV($C$16,H29,-(I29*$C$14+J29),0)-PV($C$16,(G29-1),-(I29*$C$14+J29),0)))","v":""}]
[null,{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C20=\"\",\"\",'candidate actions'!C20)","v":""},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,""]
[null,{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C21=\"\",\"\",'candidate actions'!C21)","v":""},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,""]
[null,{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C22=\"\",\"\",'candidate actions'!C22)","v":""},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,""]

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[null,"Participant","Alias","Abbreviation"]
[null,null,"Colonel Mustard","Col M"]
[null,null,"Mrs Peacock","Mrs P"]
[null,null,"Dr Black","Dr B"]
[null,null,"Reverend Green","Rev G"]
[null,null,"Miss Scarlet","Miss S"]
[null,null,"Professor Plum","Prof P"]
[null,null,"Dr Orchid","Dr O"]
[null,null,"Mrs White","Mrs W"]
[null,null,"Sargeant Gray","Sgt G"]
[null,null,"Monsieur Brunette","Mon B"]
[null,null,"Miss Peach","Miss P"]
[null,null,"Inspector Brown","Insp B"]

{"sheet":"judgments","index":4,"n_rows":22,"n_cols":6,"rows_kept":22,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
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[null,null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)"]
["Q1","Under ideal conditions (e.g. prior to human occupation) what do you think is the carrying capacity of the whole island?"]
[]
["Q2",{"$f":"CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!C14, \" years hence under the \",\"base case?\")","v":"What will be the population size  years hence under the base case?"}]
[]
["Q3",{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C11=\"\",\"\",CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!$C$14, \" years hence under Action 1 - \",'candidate actions'!C11,\" ?\"))","v":"What will be the population size  years hence under Action 1 - Ex-situ ?"}]
["Q4",{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C12=\"\",\"\",CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!$C$14, \" years hence under Action 2 - \",'candidate actions'!C12,\" ?\"))","v":""}]
["Q5",{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C13=\"\",\"\",CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!$C$14, \" years hence under Action 3 - \",'candidate actions'!C13,\" ?\"))","v":""}]
["Q6",{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C14=\"\",\"\",CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!$C$14, \" years hence under Action 4 - \",'candidate actions'!C14,\" ?\"))","v":""}]
["Q7",{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C15=\"\",\"\",CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!$C$14, \" years hence under Action 5 - \",'candidate actions'!C15,\" ?\"))","v":""}]
["Q8",{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C16=\"\",\"\",CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!$C$14, \" years hence under Action 6 - \",'candidate actions'!C16,\" ?\"))","v":""}]
["Q9",{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C17=\"\",\"\",CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!$C$14, \" years hence under Action 7 - \",'candidate actions'!C17,\" ?\"))","v":""}]
["Q10",{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C18=\"\",\"\",CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!$C$14, \" years hence under Action 8 - \",'candidate actions'!C18,\" ?\"))","v":""}]
["Q11",{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C19=\"\",\"\",CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!$C$14, \" years hence under Action 9 - \",'candidate actions'!C19,\" ?\"))","v":""}]
["Q12",{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C20=\"\",\"\",CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!$C$14, \" years hence under Action 10 - \",'candidate actions'!C20,\" ?\"))","v":""}]
["Q13",{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C21=\"\",\"\",CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!$C$14, \" years hence under Action 11 - \",'candidate actions'!C21,\" ?\"))","v":""}]
["Q14",{"$f":"IF('candidate actions'!C22=\"\",\"\",CONCATENATE(\"What will be the population size \", preliminaries!$C$14, \" years hence under Action 12 - \",'candidate actions'!C22,\" ?\"))","v":""}]

{"sheet":"data entry","index":5,"n_rows":23,"n_cols":61,"rows_kept":23,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
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[null,null,{"$f":"participants!D10","v":"Col M"},null,null,null,null,{"$f":"participants!D11","v":"Mrs P"},null,null,null,null,{"$f":"participants!D12","v":"Dr B"},null,null,null,null,{"$f":"participants!D13","v":"Rev G"},null,null,null,null,{"$f":"participants!D14","v":"Miss S"},null,null,null,null,{"$f":"participants!D15","v":"Prof P"},null,null,null,null,{"$f":"participants!D16","v":"Dr O"},null,null,null,null,{"$f":"participants!D17","v":"Mrs W"},null,null,null,null,{"$f":"participants!D18","v":"Sgt G"},null,null,null,null,{"$f":"participants!D19","v":"Mon B"},null,null,null,null,{"$f":"participants!D20","v":"Miss P"},null,null,null,null,{"$f":"participants!D21","v":"Insp B"}]
[null,null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)",null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)",null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)",null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)",null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)",null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)",null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)",null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)",null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)",null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)",null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)",null,"lower ","best","upper","confidence (%)"]
[{"$f":"judgments!A7","v":"Q1"},{"$f":"judgments!B7","v":"Under ideal conditions (e.g. prior to human occupation) what do you think is the carrying capacity of the whole island?"}]
[]
[{"$f":"judgments!A9","v":"Q2"},{"$f":"judgments!B9","v":"What will be the population size  years hence under the base case?"}]
[]
[{"$f":"judgments!A11","v":"Q3"},{"$f":"judgments!B11","v":"What will be the population size  years hence under Action 1 - Ex-situ ?"}]
[{"$f":"judgments!A12","v":"Q4"},{"$f":"judgments!B12","v":""}]
[{"$f":"judgments!A13","v":"Q5"},{"$f":"judgments!B13","v":""}]
[{"$f":"judgments!A14","v":"Q6"},{"$f":"judgments!B14","v":""}]
[{"$f":"judgments!A15","v":"Q7"},{"$f":"judgments!B15","v":""}]
[{"$f":"judgments!A16","v":"Q8"},{"$f":"judgments!B16","v":""}]
[{"$f":"judgments!A17","v":"Q9"},{"$f":"judgments!B17","v":""}]
[{"$f":"judgments!A18","v":"Q10"},{"$f":"judgments!B18","v":""}]
[{"$f":"judgments!A19","v":"Q11"},{"$f":"judgments!B19","v":""}]
[{"$f":"judgments!A20","v":"Q12"},{"$f":"judgments!B20","v":""}]
[{"$f":"judgments!A21","v":"Q13"},{"$f":"judgments!B21","v":""}]
[{"$f":"judgments!A22","v":"Q14"},{"$f":"judgments!B22","v":""}]

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[null,{"$f":"CONCATENATE(\"Imagine three possible futures for Christmas Island Flying Fox at the end of \",preliminaries!C14,\" years:\")","v":"Imagine three possible futures for Christmas Island Flying Fox at the end of  years:"}]
[]
[null,"Future state","population size","feeling","value"]
[null,"i. Extinction",0,"terrible",0]
[null,"ii. A population size of…",null,"50/50",50]
[null,"iii. A population equivalent to the island's estimated carrying capacity",{"$f":"outcomes_1!C43","v":""},"wonderful",100]
[]
[null,"Step 1  Assign a number in the highlighted cell C19 that leaves you with the feeling that a change from scenario i to scenario ii is just as good (but no better) as a change from scenario ii to iii."]
[]
[null,"Step 2 THEN (a) click on the 'fit curve' button, and (b) the okay button on the 'Solver Results' pop-up."]
[]
[null,"If the computer is behaving, the green cell at F50 below should be zero after Step 2.  "]
[null,"Check that the curve plotted below is a reasonable reflection of your value judgment.  If not, go back to step 1."]
[null,"Note that sometimes the computer gets stuck in the calculation it makes at step 2."]
[null,"If you think this might be happening then change the number in the blue cell D55 below with a randomly chosen number between 10 and 1000.  Then repeat step 2."]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,"Solver"]
[null,"value","wild (%)","ρ","fit","check"]
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[null,0.5,{"$f":"C15","v":0},null,{"$f":"(1-EXP(-(C46-$C$45)/$D$45))/(1-EXP(-($C$47-$C$45)/$D$45))","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"ABS(B46-E46)","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
[null,1,{"$f":"C16","v":""},null,{"$f":"(1-EXP(-(C47-$C$45)/$D$45))/(1-EXP(-($C$47-$C$45)/$D$45))","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
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[null,"population size in the wild","value"]
[0,{"$f":"A74/60*$C$47","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"100*(1-EXP(-(B74-$C$45)/$D$45))/(1-EXP(-($C$47-$C$45)/$D$45))","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
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[32,{"$f":"A106/60*$C$47","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$error":"#VALUE!"}]
[33,{"$error":"#VALUE!"},{"$error":"#VALUE!"}]
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[null,"Task 1 (TECHNICAL judgments): Prospects for success in captive breeding"]
[]
[null,null,null,null,"From inception of a captive breeding program, how many years later would you like to judge success?"]
[]
[null,null,null,null,{"$f":"CONCATENATE(\"And what do you think is the chance (%) of captive breeding success after \",F15,,\" years?\")","v":"And what do you think is the chance (%) of captive breeding success after  years?"}]
[]
[]
[null,"Task 2 (VALUE judgment): COMBINED value of an insurance population and wild population"]
[]
[null,"The value of an insurance population held in captivity may depend on the size of the population in the wild. "]
[null,"Let's say we place a value of zero to the worst possible outcome and a value of 100 to the best possible outcome."]
[null,"Note that 100 refers to the combined value of the wild and insurance populations."]
[]
[null,"Outcome","population size in the wild","insurance population","value"]
[null,"worst",0,"no",0]
[null,"best",4875,"yes",100]
[]
[null,"Now keeping in mind a scale of 0 to 100 for these bookend  outcomes, rate the two intermediate outcomes, A and B, below:"]
[]
[null,"Outcome","population size in the wild","Insurance population","value"]
[null,"worst",{"$f":"C27","v":0},"no",0]
[null,"A",{"$f":"C28","v":4875},"no"]
[null,"B",{"$f":"C33","v":0},"yes"]
[null,"best",{"$f":"C34","v":4875},"yes",100]
[]
[]
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[null,"value|insurance = no"]
[null,"marginal value function"]
[null,"value","wild (%)","ρ","fit","check"]
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[null,{"$f":"B73+(B75-B73)/2","v":0},{"$f":"'value judgment'!C46","v":0},null,{"$f":"($E$34/100)*(1-EXP(-(C74-$C$73)/$D$73))/(1-EXP(-($C$75-$C$73)/$D$73))+0","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"ABS(B74-E74)","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
[null,{"$f":"(E34/100)","v":0},{"$f":"'value judgment'!C16","v":""},null,{"$f":"($E$34/100)*(1-EXP(-(C75-$C$73)/$D$73))/(1-EXP(-($C$75-$C$73)/$D$73))+0","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"ABS(B75-E75)","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
[]
[]
[null,"value|insurance = yes"]
[null,"marginal value function"]
[null,"value","wild (%)","ρ","fit","check"]
[null,{"$f":"E35/100","v":0},0,{"$f":"'value judgment'!D45","v":2842.8734745186298},{"$f":"(((100-$E$35)/100)*(1-EXP(-(C81-$C$81)/$D$81))/(1-EXP(-($C$83-$C$81)/$D$81))+($E$35/100))","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"ABS(B81-E81)","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
[null,{"$f":"B81+(B83-B81)/2","v":0.5},{"$f":"'value judgment'!C46","v":0},null,{"$f":"(((100-$E$35)/100)*(1-EXP(-(C82-$C$81)/$D$81))/(1-EXP(-($C$83-$C$81)/$D$81))+($E$35/100))","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"ABS(B82-E82)","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
[null,1,{"$f":"'value judgment'!C16","v":""},null,{"$f":"(((100-$E$35)/100)*(1-EXP(-(C83-$C$81)/$D$81))/(1-EXP(-($C$83-$C$81)/$D$81))+($E$35/100))","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"ABS(B83-E83)","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
[]
[null,"population size in the wild","value|insurance = no","value|insurance = yes"]
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[null,null,"best","lower","upper","calc1","calc 2","cost ($k)"]
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[null,"Q14",{"$f":"'Q14'!$D$67","v":""},{"$f":"'Q14'!$I$67","v":""},{"$f":"'Q14'!$J$67","v":""},{"$f":"C56+E56","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$error":"#VALUE!"},{"$f":"costs!K32","v":""}]

{"sheet":"outcomes_2","index":23,"n_rows":27,"n_cols":6,"rows_kept":27,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
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[null,"Outcomes 2"]
[]
[null,"The cost-effectiveness of actions (conservation value divided by cost) is tabulated here."]
[null,"The conservation benefit comes from the curves in the ex-situ judgments tab.  ",null,"For each action, it is the difference in the value of the population size under the base case and the action."]
[null,"For the ex-situ action, there is additional value from an insurance population included in the calculation of conservation benefit."]
[null,"Costs are from the costs tab."]
[]
[null,"The cumulative conservation benefits of implementing multiple candidate actions (described in terms of population size in the wild) are graphed below the table, along with cumulative costs.  "]
[null,"The graph can be used to gauge the strength of the argument for additional funding.  Note that the graph does not include the value of an insurance population."]
[]
[null,"Before considering the graph, click on the RANK button to order the actions from best (most cost-effective) to worst (least cost-effective).  "]
[]
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